Force Management Statement Summary 2022 - 2023
10. Appendix A
Assessing And Comparing Demand Risk
The HMICFRS Force Management Statement template requires forces to:
- Establish current demand.
- Establish future demand.
- Assess performance, capacity, and capability.
The Demand Risk Assessment combines these three requirements into two measures that allow meaningful assessment and comparison across all functions:
| Asset shortfall |
Measures current demand: · How critical are the shortfalls in the force’s assets to effectively manage current demand? · Uses a five-point scale (critical 5, severe 4, substantial 3, moderate 2, low 1). |
This depends on: • The level of current demand. • The sufficiency and effectiveness of Force resources to manage that demand to an acceptable level. |
| Future trend | Measures projected future demand: • The trend in demand • Uses a five-point scale (increasing significantly, increasing slightly, stable, decreasing slightly, or decreasing significantly) |
This depends on: • Short and long term past trends. • Local, regional, national, and global environmental factors that are likely to affect demand in the future |
The CamSTRA process and outcomes inform ongoing budget and strategic planning decisions to manage functions facing the highest demand risks, through appropriate representation in the 2023/24 budget and business planning processes.
Demand Risk Strategic Heat Map
Both asset shortfall and future trend measure demands using a five-point scale. The established 5x5 strategic risk matrix is used to map the demands, with the greater weighting applied to asset shortfall (current demand).
|
Demand Trend |
11 (Moderate demand risk) |
16 (Substantial demand risk) |
20 (Severe demand risk) |
23 (Severe demand risk) |
25 (Critical demand risk) |
|
Demand Trend |
7 (Moderate demand risk) |
12 (Moderate demand risk) |
17 (Substantial demand risk) |
21 (Severe demand risk) |
24 (Critical demand risk) |
|
Demand Trend |
4 (Low demand risk) |
8 (Moderate demand risk) |
13 (Substantial demand risk) |
18 (Substantial demand risk) |
22 (Severe demand risk) |
|
Demand Trend |
2 (Low demand risk) |
5 (Low demand risk) |
9 (Moderate demand risk) |
14 (Substantial demand risk) |
19 (Severe demand risk) |
|
Demand Trend |
1 (Low demand risk) |
3 (Low demand risk) |
6 (Low demand risk) |
10 (Moderate demand risk) |
15 (Substantial demand risk) |
|
- |
Asset Shortfall 1 |
Asset Shortfall 2 |
Asset Shortfall 3 |
Asset Shortfall 4 |
Asset Shortfall 5 |
Measuring Demand Risk
The established strategic risk matrix divides risk into five zones.
Applying the heat -map principles, the demand risk faced by each operational policing and support function into the same five zones:
|
Dark red |
Critical demand risk |
|
Red |
Severe demand risk |
|
Amber |
Substantial demand risk |
|
Yellow |
Moderate demand risk |
|
Green |
Low demand risk |
The Cambridgeshire Constabulary Risk Management Policy sets the risk tolerance at a score of 13 (that is a moderate risk).
The aim of risk management is, where practical given internal and external constraints, to establish mitigations that bring risks to or below this risk tolerance.
Applying this principal, the assessment identifies those functions where attention is needed to bring the demand risk within the risk tolerance level. In simple terms, other factors being equal, functions assessed as facing a critical demand risk will require greater attention than functions facing lower levels of demand risk.